Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 9.083064 10.435294 11.892153 13.575038 15.461896 17.508597 19.893020
2025-12-14 6.997045 8.803500 10.902733 13.508624 16.641727 20.271711 24.778831
2025-12-21 5.637945 7.539097 9.862110 12.884335 16.684305 21.273576 27.201678
2025-12-28 5.017576 7.073601 9.696743 13.248229 17.884489 23.679892 31.412917
2026-01-04 4.499047 6.645439 9.489529 13.475561 18.849370 25.766023 35.250787
2026-01-11 3.962959 6.120762 9.084740 13.376140 19.337923 27.221506 38.306474
2026-01-18 3.507978 5.651138 8.696052 13.239909 19.729338 28.525076 41.176874
2026-01-25 3.163683 5.301283 8.435098 13.243720 20.287018 30.049668 44.382967
2026-02-01 2.895554 5.035139 8.265273 13.351453 20.976654 31.764584 47.901040
2026-02-08 2.615069 4.718232 7.986958 13.266236 21.362566 33.046656 50.840256
2026-02-15 2.361949 4.418074 7.705278 13.146142 21.673804 34.215362 53.642740
2026-02-22 2.180340 4.217953 7.562109 13.223672 22.275739 35.819717 57.125936
2026-03-01 2.066837 4.128221 7.596261 13.593361 23.361748 38.212926 61.910823
2026-03-08 1.864487 3.859957 7.311208 13.421162 23.579161 39.295425 64.766575
2026-03-15 1.617426 3.481766 6.804197 12.836524 23.087022 39.243875 65.862617
2026-03-22 1.542511 3.421293 6.846705 13.186028 24.136737 41.639010 70.829391
2026-03-29 1.456402 3.329649 6.824418 13.417215 24.994005 43.754186 75.423548
2026-04-05 1.332645 3.149234 6.624096 13.316472 25.276997 44.947466 78.584697
2026-04-12 1.216584 2.971891 6.414246 13.181372 25.487185 46.020749 81.579129
2026-04-19 1.127899 2.842884 6.285823 13.184954 25.934664 47.495730 85.269433
2026-04-26 1.058404 2.748199 6.216420 13.292347 26.567254 49.298047 89.552203
2026-05-03 0.974562 2.612070 6.052851 13.207432 26.844102 50.500982 92.868468
2026-05-10 0.894758 2.476152 5.878270 13.087812 27.046886 51.577379 95.998344